2026 Tea Outlook
2025 RECAP
CHINA EXPORTS
From January to October, China’s total exports increased 3.7% over the same period in 2024. This included a 13.4% gain in green tea exports and a 51.9% decrease in black tea exports. Customs data downloaded prior to the end of 2024 and data downloaded early 2025 show a discrepancy of 49 million kg down to nearly 25 million kg of black tea exports for the year, and omits several major export destinations. At the time of writing, an explanation for this discrepancy is undetermined.
US IMPORTS
US imports from Jan to Oct of 2025 showed an 11.5% increase in green tea imports from China compared to the same period in 2024. These imports from China accounted for 32% of all green tea imports.
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2026 OUTLOOK
TARIFFS
Since January of 2025, tariff rates on teas imported into the US from various countries have varied widely, at one point exceeding 152%. At the time of writing, tariffs on Chinese tea imports have dropped to 17.5%. There is no indication of certainty that the roller coaster is over. In January 2026, President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs (he has since backed down) on countries that opposed his efforts in Greenland. He has also threatened tariffs on countries that trade with Iran.
MATCHA
International demand for matcha is expected to continue moving at a steady clip. Some estimates put China’s matcha production at 60% of total 2025 global production. The bulk of Japan’s 2026 matcha crop has already been contracted, leaving China to ramp up and provide for the remaining unserved demand.
“HEALTHY” TEA
In line with the “Make America Healthy Again” platform of recent years, new Dietary Guidelines have been released by the USDA. Part of the messaging of these new guidelines includes emphasis on the importance of low- and no-calorie beverages. Unsweetened tea has been highlighted in recent guidelines as one of the heathy, low/no calorie beverage options that Americans are advised to consume. Watch for tea businesses to use this opportunity to promote their teas as healthy beverages in line with the changing guidelines.
TEA + FUNCTION
Expect further developments and new beverage trends that incorporate tea along with:
- Protein
- Creatine
- THC
- Collagen
and other functional ingredients
HISTORIC TEAS
2026 also presents a unique opportunity to celebrate tea’s role in US history. From the East India Company to the Boston Tea Party, tea has shaped the course of America’s foundation. For example, records tell us what kinds of tea were thrown from the ships during the Tea Party:
- Souchong black tea (China)
- Singlo green tea (China)
- Hyson green tea (China)
- Congou black tea (China)
These teas, along with the botanical alternatives used by colonists may see revived interest as part of America250 celebrations.
2026 appears to offer plenty of potentially interesting tea developments to follow.